iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Which ETFs saw the most outflows last month?

After a fierce two-year U.S. bull market where simply holding the S&P 500 outperformed almost all other diversified strategies, hedging is beginning to work again, indicating a more uncertain market.

U.S. stocks plunged Tuesday as President Donald Trump‘s tariffs on key trade partners came into effect, prompting retaliatory measures and intensifying global trade tensions.

If yields keep dropping, bond prices will rise. And if liquidity crunch fears escalate, defensive sectors could shine.

Here is a quick look at some Treasury spreads as of the end of the week.

The bid to cover dropped from 2.75 to 2.43, the lowest since November and below the recent average of 2.54.

On February 18, 2025, I walked through a signal I got back on Valentine's Day. Now, it's just deciding whether to roll your put hedges down, close your VIX volatility spread, and begin to dip your toes in the water.

Most investors just aren’t typically attuned to seismic shifts in sentiment, but maybe the retail investor community is finally catching on.

The events in the Oval Office on Friday sent the VIX 1-Day Index to an intraday high of 22. Add to that a negative gamma environment, and it seemed inevitable that we would see a “rip-your-face-off” rally.

A little over a month ago as Donald Trump was about to take office as President, the 10-year Treasury note yield hit 4.80%. Almost every economist was writing that the 10-year would hit 5% due to inflation from tariffs. Some disagreed - and still do.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s latest GDPNow forecast plunged to a level that represents GDP declining to a -1.5% annualized rate.

Several factors have contributed to recent declines in US Treasury yields, signaling market hesitation over fiscal and monetary policy dynamics. Here is a brief overview of these factors to keep in mind.

Stocks recovered on Friday, with all three major indexes in the green, as the tech sector bounced back from Thursday's losses with NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQNVDA) up 1.37% and Tesla, Inc. NASDAQ:TSLANASDAQTSLA)

A discussion about market volatility, macroeconomic risks, and sector rotations.

During Donald Trump’s first term, some investors bought into the Trump 1.0 Put. The trade was based on the market’s belief that Trump believed the stock market’s performance was a referendum on his presidency.

All three major indices were green in midday trading Wednesday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 looked to snap their four-day losing streaks. NVIDIA Corp.

What bulls do not want to see, is when the long bonds (which have turned around) outperform both the S&P 500 and the Junk Bonds. 

Markets fell broadly Tuesday with the S&P 500 trading at five-week lows and the Nasdaq extending its three-day losing streak. The Dow Jones managed to recover midday while Wall Street digested a weaker-than-anticipated consumer confidence survey from the Conference Board, adding to concerns over the health of the U.S.

Economic activity will pick up again this week, culminating in the PCE report on Friday. Additionally, Nvidia’s midweek earnings, which have become a significant market-moving event in recent quarters, will also be in focus.

Zooming out to the weekly chart of TLT, we see a double bottom in play from the lows in October 2023 and January 2025. 

It is tough guessing how things will shake out in the next few weeks, let alone for the remainder of the year or the next four years. If there is any certainty, it is that it will be volatile.

Soros Fund Management made bullish bets on Alphabet and small-cap stocks while reducing exposure to SPY and Chinese tech in Q4.

All three major U.S. indices are red in Wednesday's midday trading as investors weighed President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on auto imports, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

Major U.S. indices are little-changed in Tuesday's midday trading as investors monitor recent geopolitical developments and anticipate the release of the latest FOMC minutes on Wednesday.