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Homebuilder Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH) reported Q1 CY2025 results beating Wall Street’s revenue expectations, but sales fell by 7.9% year on year to $1.36 billion. The company’s full-year revenue guidance of $6.75 billion at the midpoint came in 1.5% above analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP profit of $1.69 per share was in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Goldman Sachs anticipates that ongoing macroeconomic volatility and consumer strain will act as a drag on the more "macro-sensitive segments,” such as hotels.
International travel contributes only 5% of US room nights and 3% of arrivals, but brings in more revenue as international travelers stay longer and spend more. Canada is the largest source market, followed by Europe and Mexico.
Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove downgrades U.S. Lodging C-Corps and Timeshares due to weaker consumer demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and negative impacts from U.S. airlines. The forecast for 2025 RevPAR is lowered by 125 basis points, with a 45% probability of a U.S. recession. Preference shifts towards asset-light companies with global exposure, focusing on non-RevPAR and ancillary revenues amid uncertain macro conditions.
Stay tuned for the market movements in the S&P500 index on Monday. Check out the gap up and gap down stocks in the S&P500 index during today's session.
Wall Street has set ambitious price targets for the stocks in this article.
While this suggests attractive upside potential, it’s important to remain skeptical because analysts face institutional pressures that can sometimes lead to overly optimistic forecasts.
A number of stocks fell in the afternoon session after stocks gave back some of the gains from the previous day as the White House clarified the tariffs on imports from China would add up to 145%, while the baseline 10% tariffs remained in place for all countries. This reminded markets that the global trade environment remained volatile, limiting the potential for sustained gains.
Gaming and lodging stocks are under pressure as recession risks mount, BofA Securities reports. With tariffs weighing on GDP, analysts warn of a potential 3%–8% EBITDA hit. Hotel and timeshare sectors remain the most exposed, while REITs and Gaming OpCos face heightened earnings risk. Stocks are now trading at their lowest valuations since the COVID-19 and GFC downturns.
As the Q4 earnings season comes to a close, it’s time to take stock of this quarter’s best and worst performers in the travel and vacation providers industry, including Hilton (NYSE:HLT) and its peers.
As the Q4 earnings season wraps, let’s dig into this quarter’s best and worst performers in the home builders industry, including Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH) and its peers.
